Reading a rumor last week that ATI have secured the deal to deliver the GPU for Microsoft’s next xbox got me thinking about the next console generation, how far away it is, and what would convince people to buy a new system? The Wii is the most successful system this generation with arguably last generation graphics. There must be more to a new round of consoles than graphical power.
Key developers at the recent GDC commented that they were in no hurry for new consoles. This makes sense considering the massive increase in cost and development time from the previous generation. A couple extra years would allow developers to release a second or third title using technology they are familiar with. In the past some of the most critically acclaimed titles of a generation were released in the twilight years of a console, Resident Evil 4, Shadow of the colossus, God of War to name a few.
Microsoft launched the Xbox 360 in November 2005, one year earlier than the Wii & PS3. Right now we are one year away from the five year average of previous generations. Microsoft have gone on record that they intend to be first movers on a new console generation. However they have committed to releasing Natal for the holiday season 2010, and assured us the Xbox 360 will be compatible with the device. Now this rumor has appeared, which indicates a new xbox is already being developed. This system could be released as early as the end of 2011, which is also the long rumored release date of the Wii HD. This is rumored to match the graphical power of the Xbox 360 & PlayStation 3, with no doubt further refinements of their motion controller. These controls will be an industry standard by 2011, and so what can Microsoft do to stand out?
Introducing their Natal motion controller one year from now shows they cannot afford to wait two years to compete for the new casual market that the Wii has created. Releasing their system early, without support from developers could be disastrous. By introducing Natal next year however, they avoid these issues but lose a selling point for a new system. What could be their strategy behind doing this?
Stereoscopic TVs are starting to appear, should they become popular this is one way for a new system to have an edge. With modest improvements to the Xbox hardware, current games could be displayed in stereo 3D at full High Definition. Whereas Sony could also make this move for a new PlayStation, Nintendo would need to invest a lot to meet the level of graphical power required, money they do have, but have proven reluctant to spend.
I get the feeling Microsoft is going to try and emulate aspects of Nintendo’s overall strategy, not just the motion controls. By using their same graphics and CPU vendors, they can ensure complete backwards compatibility. By only modestly improving the graphical power of the system, they can develop a smaller & cooler unit, preventing a repeat of their current hardware failure rate, estimated to be over 50%. This could lead to a cheaper system at launch, aping the ’soft’ generation gap between the Gamecube and the Wii.
With Natal being out for a year already, possibly drumming up casual & public interest, a competitively priced Next Xbox bundle with Natal & stereo display capabilities may attract new console buyers, or Wii owners who are looking for something new. Or I may have it all wrong, I look forward to weighing up the rumors over the next couple years.
